TORONTO — As the ponies round the bend and fly past the quarter pole, I’m pleased to report we have some legitimately good playoff races, which include some teams that nobody gave a chance to back in October (myself included).
Today’s piece looks at the Eastern Conference race. We’ll talk about all the teams’ chances, their remaining schedules and how I expect it will all shake out.
Florida, Tampa Bay and Toronto?
These three sit in a different tier than the rest of the division, with the Senators a full five points back of Tampa with 18 games left. That’s not insurmountable, unfortunately for the Sens, though, Tampa Bay is just about as good as any team in the league.
So, two of these three are likely to play a first-round 2-3 seed matchup, which looks like fun for everyone not playing in the games. And unfortunately for the Leafs, it feels like they’re statistically the weakest of the three, despite being a position to still control their destiny.
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Florida is plus-40 in goal differential, and Tampa Bay is plus-51. Toronto is plus-16.
In checking expected goals for and against graphs, both Florida and Tampa sit in the “good-good” quadrant. The Leafs don’t (they give up too many).
So for Toronto to go deep in playoffs, it would sure like to draw … anyone but these two teams, at least out of the gate. And the Leafs would like for those two to play each other, ideally beating the hell out of one another in a seven-game bloodbath.
What do the Leafs have going for them? Both Florida and Tampa Bay play more road than home games down the stretch, while the Leafs see a 50/50 split. You don’t want to sleep on the Tampa Bay climbing up the standings, as the Bolts play 13 non-playoff teams in their final 18 games (both the Leafs and Panthers play 10), but the Leafs do have a three-point head start.
If you’re coveting the division’s top spot, Florida has the hardest remaining schedule of the three teams. The Leafs’ is middling-to-easy, while the Bolts’ is the easiest.
In the end, it comes down to this: Toronto plays Florida THREE more times, starting Thursday night, and Tampa Bay once. If the Leafs win the bulk of those games, they’ll have a very legitimate shot at winning the Atlantic. Tampa Bay and Florida also play very late in the year, which could end being a big swing too.
Washington, Carolina, New Jersey
What a weird year in the Metro. The “rebuilding” Capitals might win the Presidents’ Trophy, the Hurricanes have traded for a top NHL forward and flipped him, and the Devils have had more success than anticipated, mixed with awful luck.
This is another clear divisional top three, as the Blue Jackets aren’t catching the Devils: They’re six points back with two games in hand, but they have a top-five hardest NHL schedule remaining. Just eight of their remaining 18 opponents aren’t in the playoffs, and even then it’s the Rangers, Islanders and Canucks, hardly pushovers.
On the Devils: Imagine this team healthy? They’ve barely had their six best D in the lineup at the same time, and when they did (before Christmas), they played seven straight games giving up under 20 shots, which I don’t believe has ever been done in the NHL before.
They’re second in the league in goals against, have good special teams and good underlying numbers, while they haven’t lost in regulation when leading after two. Buuut they lost Jack Hughes and Jonas Siegenthaler for the year, plus Dougie Hamilton for an extended period, and I’m not sure what team could handle losing their 1C and 1D and have playoff success.
The best thing they have going for them is that in the 2-3 Metro matchup, the Canes don’t look quite as deadly as they have in past years, and they also didn’t end up solving the problem of their lack of top-end talent in the short term.
But I’ll back that up and give the Canes some love too — they create more than any team in the NHL in terms of expected goals for, they defend well and play hard, and, given their quality team depth, if they just get some saves they’ll be hard to beat.
The Caps? Well, they’re going to win the division for sure, and from there, it’s anyone’s guess. They’re good, but not without some holes. Fortunately for them, that’s a weakness shared by other teams in the Metro.
Ottawa, Columbus, Montreal, Rangers, Boston, Detroit
We’ve got four Original Six teams on the outside looking in, with Ottawa and Columbus holding the cards. What a world.
If we wanted, we could include the Islanders here, who Dom’s model actually gives a 10 per cent chance of making playoffs. They have 18 games left and 65 points. They’d need to go about 14-4 down the stretch, so I feel fairly comfortable calling them cooked, but it’s not like teams can’t get that hot, particularly ones with goaltending like the Isles have.
Ottawa: Those are strong odds for a team just five points up on so many chasing teams, but: According to strength of schedule, I’ve got them with one of (if not the) softest remaining schedules in the NHL. Eleven home games, evenly split between playoff and non-playoff opponents. They probably need at most 20 points to get in (could be fewer), meaning something like 10-8, or 8-8-2 seals the deal. It’s never a lock, but hey, you’ve gotta win games to make the playoffs, and they’re in a good spot.
Columbus: This is the story of the hockey season by a good margin. If you asked someone whether the Jackets would get fewer than 70 or over 90 points this season, 99 out of 100 take under 70. That said, they’ve got a tough schedule remaining, a top-five shooting percentage (without top-five talent) and don’t have elite goaltending. It’s OK to still be skeptical that they’ll get in. But it’s become a realistic possibility.
Montreal: Habs are not far behind CBJ on the “didn’t see this coming” scale. They’ve got the most neutral schedule coming possible: nine home, nine away, nine playoff, nine non-playoff opponents. Neither bought nor sold at deadline. They’re exactly where a team should be that’s about to turn the page from “rebuilding” to “competing” with some consistency.
Rangers: They really should get in the playoffs, no? They won the Presidents’ Trophy last year. They have top-end talent. They have the best goalie in the world (or at least one of the best few). But they have a game fewer than the teams they’re chasing, more road games than away and more playoff opponents than non-playoff. Can they grab a dozen wins in their final 17 games? You’d certainly think so. But they’ve defied the odds (in a bad way) all season long.
Boston: Sometimes when you prune a plant, new blooms grow quickly. Perhaps the Bruins, after a major shakeup, will find some new “They didn’t believe in us!” energy and rally. They’ve still got a handful of top-end talents, and it just takes a hot goalie for a good run, which Jeremy Swayman can certainly provide. But their management gave up on the group, and they’re running out of games. Getting a dozen wins in just 16 tries feels like a long shot, and still wouldn’t guarantee playoff games.
Detroit: The Red Wings have lost some massive hockey games lately to direct competition for the final playoff spots. They’re going to need 13 wins in their final 18 games, and I’m seeing them with one of the hardest (OK, probably the hardest) remaining schedule. After Buffalo on Wednesday, they play Carolina, Vegas, Washington, Vegas, Utah, Colorado. Of their final 18, 11 are on the road. They’ve got enough games to get there, but the games are all hard. For them, the playoffs start now.
And so, the stage is set. Ottawa and Columbus are in great spots, while the Atlantic is going to be a dogfight to avoid what looks like a nastier battle in Round 1.
For some fans who just wanted to play meaningful games late in the year, this is fun. For those with loftier expectations, the work is only just beginning.
