Analyzing who has the best schedule in final month for the Western Conference

Earlier in the week I took a look at the Eastern Conference playoff race, which has a huge number of teams still in it. The Western Conference offers fewer teams but maybe a more compelling race to get in, while the division races are a little more clear, save for one…

Vegas, Edmonton, and Los Angeles

This one feels like it’s all but sorted out except for “Who gets home ice, Edmonton or Los Angeles?” Vegas has a six-point lead on the Kings (and LA has a game in hand), but that’s a fairly sizeable total to make up in league that hands out three-point games like candy, and where Vegas isn’t going to go in the tank suddenly. They’re just not.

This leaves the red-hot Kings (four straight wins) and the ice cold Oilers (5-9-0 since Feb. 1st) set to face-off in round one. The good news for Oilers fans is, nobody wants to peak a month from the playoffs. It’s not the right time of year yet, and we know they have the talent to hit higher notes. There’s still 20 per cent of the playing calendar to ramp up for late April.

Winnipeg, Dallas, Colorado

It’s common for people covering the Atlantic to say “winning the division is crucial,” as you badly want to avoid that 2-3 matchup. Well good lord, look at the 2-3 in the Central. So, full credit goes to the Winnipeg Jets, who deserve to draw someone like Calgary or Vancouver while Dallas and Colorado play a deathmatch of a series that will undeniably be better quality hockey than the Stanley Cup Final (as they’ll be healthy, and both worthy anyway).

Winnipeg deserves a chance at a shorter series for their great regular season, and checking the standings, it doesn’t seem like anybody has a chance to catch them.

So, let’s get into the more interesting stuff.

Calgary, Vancouver, Utah, St. Louis, (Minnesota)

The only reason I throw Minnesota in the mix is math. They’ve been struggling badly, and only have 16 games left. If they were to go, hypothetically here, let’s say 6-10 – which is bad but not impossible? – they would finish with 91 points. The Canucks would need to go 10-7 in their final 17 – not remotely impossible – to get to 91 points. An improvement from that record, or if the Wild tanked worse, there could be some wiggle room. So mathematically, the Wild still need to win a few games before we can say they’re in the clear.

But let’s get real here. Below are the playoff odds for the four teams fighting for the final spot according to Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic. Keep in mind, the below factors in the upcoming schedule, and the model considers previous seasons.

Minnesota: 16 games left, 79 points, 97 per cent chance of making playoffs
Calgary: 18 games left, 71 points, 22 per cent chance
Vancouver: 17 games left, 71 points, 54 per cent chance
Utah: 17 games left, 69 points, 20 per cent chance
St. Louis: 16 games left, 69 points, 9 per cent chance

Let’s look at the teams individually.

Calgary: The Flames have an average difficulty of schedule remaining, and are mathematically in a good spot to close the deal. They’re trying to become the second team in over 20 years to finish last in the league in goals and make playoffs, which means a good portion of their success comes on the back of Dustin Wolf. Still, I think they do it. They’ve got the veteran experience to get this thing across the line, and they work extremely hard, to go with great coaching. It’s gonna be tight, but I like them.

Vancouver: It seems impossible that the Canucks could get in considering all that’s gone wrong this season. But they’re right there, in spite of it all. They’ve got a three-game home stand followed by a six-game road swing, where they’ll be playing out of division while the other teams have the chances to get three-point games. They gotta find those 10 or 11 wins in 17 tries, which isn’t unattainable. If Hughes is healthy, they can do it. Stand by.

Utah: The Hockey Club has a fightin’ chance despite their abysmal home record. They’ve got a three-game Pacific Division road trip over the next five days, including a head-to-head matchup with the team above them here, the Canucks. If they win that matchup it would be huge, and it helps that four of their final five regular season games are against non-playoff teams, including Nashville twice.

St. Louis: Of the Blues next eight games, SEVEN are against non-playoff teams, with five of those games at home. Yes they’re without Colton Parayko, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where we wake up two weeks from now and they’re not in the hunt, they’re simply better than their soft upcoming schedule. Of their remaining 16 games, only five opponents are playoff teams, so yes: look out for this club.

It’s fun when a lot of teams are in the mix, and this will be the NHL’s most competitive March and April that I can remember. So many fanbases say “We just want to play meaningful late-season games,” and well, here we are. Now that you’re getting them, doesn’t it feel like you want just a bit more?