- STHs have logged $7 billion in realized losses, the most in this cycle
- Bitcoin’s price remains under key moving averages, with short-term holder behavior critical to near-term trend direction
Short-term Bitcoin [BTC] holders are feeling the heat as unrealized losses mount, marking a critical inflection point in this market cycle. However, despite all the pressure building up, history suggests that this may be a natural cooling phase within a broader bull trend.
Bitcoin losses climb, but stay within historical range
In fact, data from Glassnode revealed that the relative unrealized losses for short-term holders [STHs] may be nearing the +2 standard deviation level – A threshold historically associated with peak distress.
And yet, they remain within the upper bounds typically seen during bull markets, not yet breaching capitulation territory.
Source: Glassnode
The press time level of STH pain seemed to be notable too, with over $7 billion in realized losses recorded over the last 30 days.
While this figure is the highest realized loss event of the current cycle, it is significantly below the staggering $19.8 billion and $20.7 billion levels seen during the major drawdowns of May 2021 and June 2022.
This means that while losses have been increasing, many investors are still exiting before extreme capitulation kicks in. In other words, short-term holders may be locking in modest losses, rather than enduring deeper drawdowns – A possible sign of broader market strength.
Bitcoin’s price structure and risk zones
Bitcoin was trading at $84,322 at press time, with the crypto hovering just below its 50-day moving average of $85,141 and well beneath the 200-day moving average at $95,174.
These levels form key resistance zones and may continue suppressing upward momentum. Especially if short-term holder sentiment remains weak.
Source: TradingView
The Bollinger Bands also highlighted a tightening range, hinting at a likely breakout ahead.
However, with short-term holders under pressure, the bias could tilt bearish unless new demand enters the market.
What this means for Bitcoin’s trend
The combination of rising unrealized and growing realized losses suggested elevated risk, particularly for those holding Bitcoin acquired at recent highs. However, the fact that these losses remain within historical bull market patterns is a sign that a macro reversal is not yet confirmed.
If BTC can reclaim the $85,000-level and flip it into support, it could renew confidence among STHs. Conversely, failure to hold $83,000 could lead to more selling while testing lower supports near $80,000.
Overall, short-term pain is evident, but not yet extreme. As long as Bitcoin holds above key psychological levels and macro flows remain intact, this correction may serve more as a reset than a reversal.
