The Friday Four is a collection of thoughts and information on some intriguing player storylines from around the NHL. On deck this week is:
• If Marner walks, the Maple Leafs will have to make the most of their cap space
• Cozens could be the missing piece for the Senators to end their playoff drought
• Marchand in a Panthers jersey will take some getting used to
• Is this Kuzmenko’s last chance?
The ship has officially sailed on Mitch Marner’s contract situation not becoming a distraction.
When it was reported that the Carolina Hurricanes inquired about Marner in a potential Mikko Rantanen swap, the Toronto Maple Leafs asked their superstar if he was willing to move. He wasn’t. That only further fuelled the ‘will he stay or will he go’ discussion, which is not likely to quiet down until Marner puts pen to paper or we hit July 1.
In a perfect world, the Maple Leafs and Marner would continue their relationship that has been fruitful for both sides. Marner has emerged as one of the best two-way players in the National Hockey League and re-upping with Toronto long-term would almost certainly see him eventually become the franchise’s all-time leader in points someday. And probably see his jersey raised to the rafters as well.
The Leafs and Marner are not living in a perfect world, though. It’s a salary-cap world with a lot of moving parts when it comes to building a roster. Marner and his representatives continue to remain steadfast on their plan to play out the season and look at a contract afterwards, while it’s apparent the Leafs would like to take care of business now. Rantanen just signed for eight years and $12 million annually in Dallas, making him the highest-paid winger in the league. Toronto would likely have to get well north of that to keep Marner, which it seems like they are willing to do, but a lot could change between now and the end of the post-season.
If the Leafs go on a deep run, and Marner is a catalyst for that and plays well, how much will that raise his asking price? Or if the Leafs go out in the first round again and Marner has a rough series, what happens then? Would Toronto have more of an appetite to finally shift the makeup of this team and let Marner walk? There’s a lot of uncertainty.
To get a glimpse of what life could be like without Marner, the Leafs have to look no further than the team they played immediately following the trade deadline, the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs are settling in without Rantanen, who is comparable to Marner in many ways. Both players were top-10 picks in the 2015 draft, have played around 640 career games and have averaged more than a point per game. Hence, the reason the Leafs appeared to be comfortable potentially replacing Marner with Rantanen if that reported deal became a reality.
Losing a superstar isn’t easy but to Colorado’s credit, they’ve done a pretty good job so far of replacing Rantanen. The main piece of the initial return was Martin Necas, and although he’s not quite on Rantanen’s level, he’s been a great fit next to Nathan MacKinnon and very productive for the Avs. Not only that, but he was close to $3 million cheaper than Rantanen, giving the Avs more flexibility heading into the trade deadline where they added Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle. The forward group is deeper than it’s been in years and they haven’t had this kind of centre depth since Nazem Kadri was on the team.
While none of these players are as good as Rantanen, you could make an argument as a whole that the Avalanche are in a better position to go on a deep run compared to the last couple of seasons. Colorado was very top-heavy with MacKinnon, Rantanen and Cale Makar but couldn’t get past a much deeper squad like Dallas last post-season. Nelson is a rental, and they may or may not be able to re-sign him, but Necas and Coyle are signed for one more year after this. It remains to be seen if this version of the Avs is better than they were with Rantanen, but at the very least, Colorado doesn’t look like they’re going to take a step backwards and will have more roster flexibility moving forward without a huge chunk of their cap tied up in Rantanen.
Now, of course, Rantanen’s situation isn’t an exact parallel to Marner’s. The big difference is the Avs had more control of the situation as Rantanen didn’t have a full no-move clause, and they were able to trade him to get an important piece like Necas back to ultimately kickstart their roster retool. If Marner doesn’t re-sign at this point, the Leafs will essentially lose him for nothing. What they would gain is cap space and flexibility moving forward that they could use in free agency. If they were willing to pay Marner around $13 million annually let’s say, that would suddenly be available to spend on talent available this summer.
That would almost certainly be used at the forward position, as Toronto has its entire defence corps signed for multiple years beyond this one. Names like Sam Bennett, Nikolaj Ehlers, Brad Marchand and Brock Boeser all figure to be available, and theoretically, the Leafs could potentially add two impact players for maybe just a little more than they were planning to pay Marner. This is easier said than done, but the Leafs could potentially head into free agency with more cap space than they’ve had in years.
Even if they didn’t make a big splash signing, there are other options for Toronto. They could enter the trade market this summer with more cap room at their disposal or set themselves up to take on more talent at next year’s trade deadline. Again, Marner won’t be replaceable with one player, but a more balanced roster could help them avoid taking a step back.
The Leafs were on the other side of this situation when John Tavares left the New York Islanders to sign with Toronto. New York watched Tavares leave for nothing, and many felt the Isles were heading for some challenging times, but they ultimately revamped the roster and went to back-to-back conference finals only two years later. That was further than they ever got with Tavares in the fold.
All this isn’t to say it would be a smart move to let Marner walk. Signing him would still be the optimal situation because you don’t let players with his talents leave if you can avoid it. The Leafs, though, are no longer in a position where they get to decide Marner’s fate with the franchise. He’s in the driver’s seat, and he can decide if he wants to stay or test free agency.
The reality is, with or without Marner, Toronto’s pursuit of a championship won’t change. If Marner moves on, so will the Leafs.
You only get one chance to make a first impression, and Dylan Cozens is making a good one in Ottawa.
It’s only been four games, but Cozens has a point in each of them, including two goals and a game-winning tally. He also threw 17 hits in his first two outings with the Sens and there’s no better way to endear yourself to a fanbase than that.
Ottawa quietly had a really solid trade deadline, with not only the Cozens addition but Fabian Zetterlund as well. That’s a lot of talent to add to a forward group on a team that’s desperate to end their playoff drought.
There are plenty of reasons to love this Cozens trade for the Senators, with the first one being Josh Norris, who was the main piece in the return for the Buffalo Sabres, is a little older and has a more expensive cap hit than Cozens. Norris has also had injury challenges, having never played more than 66 games in a season. I think Cozens also has a higher ceiling and more upside, to go along with a 68-point season in his pocket. Having a right-shot, potential top-six centre for years to come is a great bet by the Senators.
You can also already see the impact Cozens is having on the team and how he’s been able to balance out the roster. Ridly Greig and Shane Pinto should now be able to shift down to the third line permanently, and having another centre allows the Sens more flexibility to move Tim Stutzle and Claude Giroux around. Right now, Stutzle and Giroux are playing with Brady Tkachuk, who is on an absolute heater, on the top line, and Cozens has settled in with Drake Batherson and David Perron on the second unit. That gives the Sens two lines that are a real threat for offence, and Pinto and Greig make the third line tough to play against. We haven’t even mentioned Zetterlund, who helps boost the second power-play unit and is starting on the fourth line. Ottawa could easily bump him up the lineup if someone is struggling.
The Senators have suddenly won five straight games and find themselves in the driver’s seat for the first wild-card spot in the East. Ottawa has put together some winning streaks earlier in the season but hasn’t been able to sustain that level of play, though this time, things feel a bit different. They are deeper than ever before and if Linus Ullmark plays the way he did against the Detroit Red Wings on Monday, they are going to be tough to overtake in the playoff chase.
Cozens may end up being the missing piece of their playoff puzzle.
There are some players that just look weird in certain jerseys. Brad Marchand putting on a Florida Panthers sweater would have to be near the top of the list. Even just writing his name for this piece without the Boston Bruins attached to it still doesn’t seem quite right. What made things even more jarring, was watching Marchand take the ice for his first practice with the Panthers at TD Garden, as he skated back and forth across the Bruins logo.
Both parties clearly wanted to come to an extension, but a gap in contract terms couldn’t be bridged. It’s another example of how anyone can be traded, no matter how much they mean to a franchise.
There are a couple of reasons that make this Marchand trade very interesting, though. The first would be the return of just a conditional second-round pick. It’s possible this ends up being a first for Boston if the Panthers win two rounds and Marchand plays in 50 per cent of Florida’s playoff games, but there’s no guarantee that happens. It’s an underwhelming return for one of the greatest Bruins of all time.
Now, part of that has to do with Boston trying to do right by Marchand. All indications are that Marchand was comfortable and willing to go to Florida, but if you were going to move a player as valuable as Marchand, you’d think the Bruins would want a lot more in return. Marchand is 36 and not the player he was, but he’s still on pace for his third straight 60-point season and is built for the post-season. A player of his skillset should be able to fetch more than a second-round pick. I understand Boston is going in a different direction and may be headed for somewhat of a retool or rebuild, but if that was all they were going to get back, it may have been worth just keeping him and seeing if you could work things out contract-wise before July 1.
The other peculiar thing was that he goes to a bitter division rival. Florida rallied from a 3-1 series deficit to knock out the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Bruins two years ago in the playoffs, and they ousted Boston last year, too. Let’s also not forget Sam Bennett injured Marchand with a hit in last year’s post-season. The Bruins have now bolstered their rival for a potential run to a third straight Stanley Cup Final for a minimal return.
This deal only further illustrates that there is rarely a happy ending in professional sports. Players walking into the sunset as champions on the team they played their whole career with are few and far between. However, given the circumstances of the Marchand departure and what this post-season could potentially hold for the Panthers, it has the makings of being a particularly painful outcome for Bruins fans.
Andrei Kuzmenko is starting to build a pretty big jersey collection.
The Los Angeles Kings acquired Kuzmenko before the trade deadline, putting the 29-year-old on his third different team this season and fourth in the past two years. Kuzmenko burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2022-23, scoring 39 goals and 74 points for the Vancouver Canucks. Those numbers came with a whopping 27.3 per cent shooting percentage, though, and Kuzmenko has never really come close to matching them again.
In 2023-24, Canucks head coach Rick Tocchet grew tired of Kuzmenko’s defensive play and lack of attention to detail. He was made a frequent scratch and was eventually shipped to the Calgary Flames, where his shooting percentage ultimately regressed as Kuzmenko struggled to find the back of the net. After only a year in Calgary, he was moved to the Philadelphia Flyers in a significant deal, which may have been doomed from the start. John Tortorella is a demanding coach, to say the least, and Kuzmenko’s style was never going to be a fit in Philly.
After only seven games with the Flyers, the Kings are now taking a chance on Kuzmenko. Los Angeles appears to be on another collision course to meet the Edmonton Oilers in the first round for the fourth consecutive season. The Kings have lost the previous three matchups, and some extra scoring could help. We all know the Oilers have little trouble filling the net, so the Kings are going to have to try and keep pace if they hope this spring’s result will be different. Los Angeles currently ranks just 19th in goals for, so Kuzmenko gives them another option for offence if he can maintain a regular place in the lineup.
The Kings are also a very structured team and one of the best at limiting goals against, meaning Kuzmenko will have to make sure he doesn’t jeopardize that if he wants to avoid the press box. One of the things Kuzmenko also needs to improve on to be a regular with the Kings is his shot volume. This year, in 37 games with the Flames, he managed only 39 shots and the year he scored 39 times, it came on just 143 shots. If Kuzmenko wants to counteract his shooting percentage regression, he simply needs to get more pucks on net. Even if he isn’t scoring, shooting more can also create offence for teammates through rebounds and second-chance opportunities.
If things don’t work out for Kuzmenko in Los Angeles, you have to wonder how many chances he has left. He’ll be a UFA this summer, but there likely won’t be a lot of organizations lining up to add Kuzmenko’s services after changing addresses so many times in a short span. There’s a lot of pressure on Kuzmenko to make the most of this opportunity.
