It’s the final day of March. Do you know where your team’s playoff hopes stand?
For those in the top three of each division, the answer is, mostly, yes. Even though most clubs have yet to officially clinch their post-season berths, the separation in the standings between each division’s top seeds and those battling for wild-card spots is pretty clear-cut. So while many teams can now coast to the post-season, the sprint is still full-speed ahead for those whose hopes are fixed on one of four wild-card spots.
And the margin for error is quickly shrinking.
With teams’ remaining game counts now mostly down to single digits, we’re looking at playoff odds in the league’s most interesting races — the Atlantic’s top three, as well as both wild-card battles. All playoff odds referenced are courtesy of MoneyPuck.
Maple Leafs lead tight race to top Atlantic
While the Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Florida Panthers still have yet to officially punch their tickets to the playoffs, we can safely write a little ‘x’ beside their names — MoneyPuck lists all three clubs’ playoff odds at 100 per cent. The real question is about seeding — and while the Maple Leafs currently hold the top spot thanks to a three-point lead earned via a solid West Coast road trip, this is still anyone’s division to take.
Toronto holds the highest odds right now of finishing atop the Atlantic — 44.7 per cent, per MoneyPuck — and will have plenty of opportunity to prove they’re worthy of the No. 1 seed as they face off against the Panthers Wednesday night, followed by a road trip down to the sunshine state for another date with Florida before their final regular-season showdown against the Lightning on April. 9.
The Lightning currently hold the second-best odds of finishing first in the Atlantic (33.3 per cent), followed by the Panthers’ 22 per cent odds.
Race tightens up in the East as Senators run away with WC1
And then there was one — wild-card spot, that is. With seven points separating the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens, the Senators are sitting pretty in the first wild-card spot with a 99.6 per cent chance of making the post-season according to MoneyPuck. So, where does that leave the WC2 race? Here are the odds:
Montreal Canadiens (38.6 per cent): A five-game skid saw their playoff odds come back down to earth, but a big win Sunday against the Panthers has them back on track. A second win over Florida Tuesday night would go a long way in their search to secure the second wild-card spot.
New York Rangers (32.8 per cent): Hot on the Canadiens’ tails thanks to the Habs’ hiccup, the Rangers won’t have an easy go of catching them. Just two of their remaining nine games are against non-playoff clubs.
Columbus Blue Jackets (15.4 per cent): Hold on tight, Columbus — with a home-and-home against both the Senators and the Capitals before season’s end, this sprint could bring an early dose of playoff vibes.
New York Islanders (8.7 per cent): Three straight losses set New York’s wild-card hopes back, and with the Lightning, Wild, and Capitals coming to visit all within the next week, things might not get any easier.
Detroit Red Wings (5.7 per cent): The Red Wings sit just three points back of the Canadiens for that second wild-card spot, so why such a big disparity in the playoff odds? It’s all about their strength of schedule — Detroit’s is the toughest league-wide (.612, per Tankathon), with all nine of their remaining games coming against clubs currently in playoff position.
Golden Knights can officially punch their playoff ticket
Despite having the night off, Vegas can clinch a post-season spot Monday night if the Colorado Avalanche defeat the Calgary Flames in regulation. Their odds of finishing atop the Pacific are looking incredibly strong, too, with the 2023 Stanley Cup Champs sitting with a comfortable 96.6 per cent shot of claiming the top seed in the Pacific.
Blues’ win streak has playoff odds skyrocketing
Nine straight wins see the Blues no longer just sneaking into the post-season but rather announcing their arrival for the whole league to hear — and they’re not done yet. Now tied with Minnesota in the standings, St. Louis is a 10th win away from taking over the first wild-card spot. They now hold stronger playoff odds (88.4 per cent) than the Wild (87 per cent). Both central clubs are still looking pretty comfortable above the post-season fold, which spells bad news for a pair of Canadian clubs whose own playoff odds are getting scarily small:
Calgary Flames (15.5 per cent): Back-to-back losses to the Stars and Oilers slowed the no-quit Flames’ momentum, falling off pace of the Blues. But with three games in-hand and some winnable matchups down the stretch — including two each against the Ducks and Sharks — the Flames are still alive and should be watching Minnesota closely.
Vancouver Canucks (9.7 per cent): Of Vancouver’s eight remaining games this season, five are against opponents currently in playoff position. That’s a tough hill to climb. Like the Flames, the Canucks need a little help from their foes if they’re to see those odds rise.
